Markets concluded a volatile week with U.S. equities down approximately 2%, as investors digested a mix of macroeconomic developments, policy shifts, and corporate earnings. Amid this turbulence, our portfolio model has remained strategically on the sidelines, avoiding the recent downside and preserving capital. We remain poised to re-enter the market once our proprietary trigger signals a more favorable risk-reward environment.
Market Recap & Analysis
Macro & Policy Drivers
Moody’s downgrade of U.S. debt and a deficit-expanding budget bill reignited fiscal concerns, while tariff threats added geopolitical risk.
Sector Rotation & Market Behavior
Cyclicals underperformed defensives, with the Mag 7 and broader S&P 493 falling in tandem before dip-buyers returned late in the week.
Fixed Income & Currency
Bond yields were volatile, rate-cut expectations shifted into 2026, and the U.S. dollar dropped sharply to its lowest level since December 2023.
Commodities & Crypto
Gold surged over 5% to a record weekly high, while Bitcoin also hit a new all-time high above $112,000 before retreating.
Key Catalysts to Watch Next Week
High-Stakes Earnings Calendar
- NVIDIA (NVDA)
- Salesforce (CRM)
- Costco (COST)
- Dollar General (DG)
NVIDIA’s report, in particular, could act as a major catalyst for broader equity momentum.
Critical Economic Data
- Hard Data: PCE Inflation & Durable Goods
- Soft Data: Consumer Confidence
- Policy Insight: FOMC Meeting Minutes
A mix of inflation, consumer, and Fed data will provide further clarity on the economic outlook.
Portfolio Strategy Update
Our portfolio model continues to remain on the sidelines. This disciplined, data-driven approach has allowed us to avoid recent market drawdowns and maintain flexibility.
We are closely monitoring our proprietary indicators and will re-enter the market once conditions align with our risk and return criteria. This strategy is designed to protect capital during uncertain periods while positioning us to capture upside when clarity returns.
As always, we appreciate your continued trust. Please reach out with any questions or to schedule a portfolio review. We remain committed to navigating these markets with discipline, clarity, and care.
